sexta-feira, maio 23, 2008

Um almoço com Mr. Kissinger!


Lunch with the FT: Henry Kissinger
By Stephen Graubard
Published: May 23 2008


I choose Bravo Gianni, an elegant Upper East Side restaurant, for my lunch with Henry Kissinger because it is in a quiet residential area close to his office. When I have eaten out in busier places with the former secretary of state, we have been interrupted – sometimes many times – as friends and strangers come over to greet him.
Here, in a discreet and calm dining room, we will be undisturbed. The owner Gianni Garavelli greets me warmly as I sit down at one of the large tables and wait for Kissinger, who on Tuesday celebrates his 85th birthday. He strides in briskly, dressed as always in a dark suit and sombre tie. Kissinger is a man from an age when open-necked shirts were never acceptable at lunch.
I remind him of another forthcoming anniversary – it is almost 58 years since we first met in 1950 as Harvard graduate students. We agree that the years have flown.
Now, as then, Kissinger shows little interest in wine or spirits and orders sparkling water. My Campari and soda is already on the table. Gianni brings our menus and we decide on a light lunch fit for men seeking to control our weight – both choosing a fresh green salad and linguine con vongole.
Though Kissinger’s graduate studies were in Harvard’s Government Department, what other universities call political science, and the world knows him as a controversial statesman, history was and is Kissinger’s passion.
He bears no trace of the sadness and lack of purpose that hangs over many formerly powerful men in their later years. Perhaps it is because he is still in demand. When we meet he is just back from Asia, before heading off again to Israel and Europe. This summer he will attend the Olympic Games as a member of its board. Kissinger spends little time relaxing at his country home in Connecticut as a man of his years might be tempted to do.
As we make small talk, my copy of his 1994 book Diplomacy is lying open on the restaurant table. I decide that I will approach our lunch conversation as one historian to another. This birthday meal triggers my memory of another, far less grand, lunch we shared together in November 1963. We were talking in Kissinger’s office at the Harvard Center for International Affairs when his secretary burst in to tell us that John F Kennedy had been shot, returning minutes later to tell us that the president was dead.
When I ask how he sees the Kennedy era and its legends, he speaks predictably about the inconclusive nature of Kennedy’s thousand-day administration. Then he pauses and talks on, very surprisingly, about the “might have beens” that historians love to debate. If Kennedy had lived, Kissinger recalls, then Nelson Rockefeller, governor of New York (and Kissinger’s great friend and supporter), might have been the Republican party nominee in 1964 instead of the ill-starred Barry Goldwater. Had this happened, Kissinger might have come to the international stage years before he finally became Richard Nixon’s national security adviser in 1969.
Had there been a Rockefeller v Kennedy contest in 1964, Kissinger says, “I would of course have supported Rockefeller”, but, surprisingly, he makes it surprisingly clear that a Kennedy victory would not have dismayed him. Kennedy and Rockefeller, he says, “agreed on major foreign policy questions, with no ideological issues separating them”.
The real political division in the 1960s – a tragic one in his view – came later when the landslide winner of the 1964 presidential race, the Democrat Lyndon B Johnson decided to expand the war in Vietnam. The decision aroused violent opposition among intellectuals, students and others.
But Kissinger’s anger, verging on contempt, is reserved not for Johnson but for the protesters, who, he feels, wished to see their country defeated. Many still see those demonstrators as heroes but for Kissinger it is this split – into the pro- and anti-war factions – that has proved the most enduring legacy of that time.
I take the conversation on to another presidency now held in revered regard by many Americans, that of Ronald Reagan. This is a potentially tricky subject. Many Reaganites see themselves as repudiating what they feel were Kissinger’s “amoral” policies.
We talk about 1989-91, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and whether the Reagan foreign policy achievement was as great as is now commonly portrayed. Reagan, Kissinger says, “was a major president for a particular period. Eight years earlier he might have failed, eight years later he might have been less relevant.”
At a time when the country felt humiliated by the collapse in Vietnam and the taking of American hostages in Iran, Reagan restored the nation’s confidence and Kissinger regards this as his great achievement. It is not a small tribute but scarcely the exaggerated one so common among ardent Reaganites today.
We pause to munch through a generous shared serving of prosciutto and cheese, brought with the compliments of the house, although both of us avoid the basket of rolls and bread.
Fearing we have dwelled too much on the past, I ask how he would answer if those contending for the presidency in 2008 asked him to prioritise the country’s foreign policy goals, numbering them one, two and three.
“That’s an unanswerable question if put in that form,” he replies. Kissinger argues that there is no one issue that deserves absolute priority. “Still,” he goes on, “if we give attention to our values, are candid about the nation’s capabilities, and are prepared to deny the cherished American ideal that every problem has a solution that can be realised in a specific time-frame, some major problems can be managed.”
This word “managed” is key for Kissinger and recurs frequently in our conversation, perhaps second only to the word “values”.
Kissinger believes that Iraq, while undeniably important, gives the US no excuse for neglecting its relations with China and Russia, with its European allies and Japan, and with other countries essential to American security and well-being in today’s global society.
He has made his way slowly but enthusiastically through the delectable pasta placed before us. It prompts me to recall a 1960s jibe – that the German-born Kissinger’s passion for Wiener schnitzel made visits to Michelin three-star restaurants in Paris superfluous. I wonder whether that still holds or whether he has developed a craving for food that carries no trace of his middle-European childhood.
When we have finished eating, I ask him to outline specifically what his policy on Iran would be. He is firm in his response: “I have advocated that the United States have comprehensive negotiations with Iran ... We need to have an open discussion of all differences.”
This, in his mind, requires Iran to decide “whether it is a nation or a cause. If Iran thinks of itself as a nation or can be brought to do so, it can be accorded a respected place in the international system.” America’s relations with the Shah – who was Kissinger’s friend – were never simply personal, he says; they were grounded in an understanding of the strategic importance of Iran, a situation that still holds today.
“Any serious effort to compromise differences between the United States and Iran must begin in bilateral negotiation, with each side seeking to understand the other’s perceptions. In the end the negotiations must become multilateral, leading to an international accord that will engage all of Iran’s neighbours.”
Kissinger sums up his position: “The challenge is to find a formula for resolving the Iran nuclear issue that allows for effective supervision and control acceptable to the international community.”
I still want to know whether Kissinger believes there must be some change from existing US policy in Iraq. Choosing his words carefully, he says: “It is not important simply to consider change from existing policy, we must consider what is possible at a particular time. What are we trying to achieve? We want to create a situation where existing institutions or new institutions leave room for manoeuvre, where decisions are made indigenously, and where a federalist solution is put into place once the militias have been reduced in their influence.”
He believes the military “surge” is working and says the next question is when to start to move away from an exclusively military option. “This is not a war of states,” Kissinger says. “If we withdraw from Iraq, the radical elements in all the neighbouring Arab countries will be greatly encouraged.” We will, he fears, be unable to maintain ourselves in Afghanistan, or to retain our present position in Pakistan.
He fears a rapid withdrawal could radicalise the vast Islamic community in India. I am fascinated by this statement – I have never heard anyone else say it so robustly – and suggest that he argued in a similar vein about the dangers of a departure from Vietnam. “Not at all,” he says, adding that the collapse in Vietnam was partly compensated for by the almost simultaneous and fortuitous disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Kissinger first went to communist China very early and few in the west can match his breadth and depth of knowledge. So I ask how he views China today, in the current climate of western criticism and concern. “Let me tell you how I see China. China is a country with a record of continuous self-government going back 4,000 years, the only society that has achieved this. One must start with the assumption that they must have learnt something about the requirements for survival, and it is not always to be assumed that we know it better than they do.
“Secondly, because they are likely to be a permanent factor in the world, the dominant or most influential actor in their region of the world that has become so important economically and geopolitically, it becomes the most serious challenge for us, as relations with the United States are for them.
“Some here in the United States believe that if we democratise China, they will become more tractable. This assumes that we know what democratise means. Is it indeed likely that they will become more pliable?” Clearly, he doubts this.
“It is imperative to realise that we cannot do in China in the 21st century what others thought to do in the 19th, prescribe their institutions for them and seek to organise Asia. The Chinese people have undergone huge changes since 1971. The China of 2008 is totally different from the one I first visited. The Communist party is different and though we need not agree with every action taken by Chinese leaders, we cannot simply set ourselves up as their critics.”
I ask whether American competence in the study of China is comparable to that achieved in the decades after the second world war in respect to the Soviet Union. His oblique response is that relations between the US and China have been fairly well handled in recent years but that the need now is to gain a deeper understanding of the complexities of the Chinese situation.
Our intense discussion is interrupted by the menus, with an offer of a variety of very tempting desserts. Virtuously, we turn them all down but order black coffee.
As our meal ends, we talk about current US efforts to bring about the domestic transformation of diverse societies into western-style democracies. Kissinger acknowledges that during a presidential election campaign rhetoric will often substitute for policy but we will soon have to move beyond facile solutions.
I ask what must we aspire to do and he replies with a question of his own. “Do we split the world into a union of democracies and non-democracies, or must there be another approach keyed to regional and historical circumstance?”
Kissinger, the most prolific and widely-published former secretary of state, argues for policies tailored to a global world of highly differentiated states with traditions and histories that demand recognition – even when they scarcely replicate our own.
Though many think Kissinger a Machiavellian, and imagine his concern in old age is largely with that anomalous thing called “legacy”, as an old friend I see no evidence that he is departing from positions, political and geopolitical, he has long held. Indeed, I might almost say that the greatest danger to his reputation is that he may one day be accused of repeating himself.
Kissinger developed certain theories and attitudes early in his career and he has remained faithful to most of them, moving from a consideration of Europe and its leading politicians to concern himself with the wider world, Asia especially. Always concerned with the United States, and only rarely exaggerating its prospects, he has never given in to despair. The man I lunch with knows he has been fortunate. He remains a man at the centre of things, a dedicated historian unwilling to tailor his views to prevailing opinion.
Our lunch ends, and he bids me an abrupt farewell – he has kept his next appointment waiting. For Kissinger, even at 85, has an overloaded schedule. I am left to pay the bill, say farewell to Gianni, and set off for home.
........................
Bravo Gianni230 East 63 St. New York
1 x Campari Soda1 x Bottled Water $202 x Mixed Green Salad $19.902 x Linguine Con Vongole with white sauce $432 x Coffee, one regular, the other decaffeinated $9
Total inc tax $100
Stephen Graubard is the author of ‘The Presidents’ (Penguin)

quinta-feira, maio 15, 2008

Um gesto, mil palavras!




Numa altura em que se fala num choque de civilizações entre o mundo ocidental e o mundo islâmico e depois das tensões crescentes geradas pelo 11 de Setembro e pela resposta norte-americana no Afeganistão e principalmente no Iraque, é uma monarca que no meu entender exerce a diplomacia na perfeição, aquando a sua visita à Turquia. A raínha Isabel II fez uma visita pouco habitual a uma mesquita respeitando os hábitos e tradições islâmicos. Este gesto simbólico pretende mostrar que dois mundos diferentes podem coexistir através da tolerância e do respeito. É do interesse nacional britânico que a Turquia adira à UE, no entanto se os valores democráticos se materializarem na Turquia através da UE, então isso poderá constituir um exemplo para todo o mundo àrabe e poderá trazer maior estabilidade a uma região que é agora importante para a segurança europeia.

domingo, maio 04, 2008

O primeiro Tory, Mayor de Londres: Mr Boris Jonhson

Angry China


Angry China


The recent glimpses of a snarling China should scare the country's government as much as the world

CHINA is in a frightening mood. The sight of thousands of Chinese people waving xenophobic fists suggests that a country on its way to becoming a superpower may turn out to be a more dangerous force than optimists had hoped. But it isn't just foreigners who should be worried by these scenes: the Chinese government, which has encouraged this outburst of nationalism, should also be afraid.

For three decades, having shed communism in all but the name of its ruling party, China's government has justified its monopolistic hold on power through economic advance. Many Chinese enjoy a prosperity undreamt of by their forefathers. For them, though, it is no longer enough to be reminded of the grim austerity of their parents' childhoods. They need new aspirations.


The government's solution is to promise them that China will be restored to its rightful place at the centre of world affairs. Hence the pride at winning the Olympics, and the fury at the embarrassing protests during the torch relay. But the appeal to nationalism is a double-edged sword: while it provides a useful outlet for domestic discontents (see article), it could easily turn on the government itself.

A million mutinies

The torch relay has galvanised protests about all manner of alleged Chinese crimes: in Tibet, in China's broader human-rights record, in its cosy relations with repellent regimes. And these in turn have drawn counter-protests from thousands of expatriate Chinese, from Chinese within the country and on the internet.

Chinese rage has focused on the alleged “anti-China” bias of the Western press, which is accused of ignoring violence by Tibetans in the unrest in March. From this starting-point China's defenders have gone on to denounce the entire edifice of Western liberal democracy as a sham. Using its tenets to criticise China is, they claim, sheer hypocrisy. They cite further evidence of double standards: having exported its dirtiest industries to China, the West wants the country to curb its carbon emissions, potentially impeding its growth and depriving newly well-off Chinese of their right to a motor car. And as the presidential election campaign in America progresses, more China-bashing can be expected, with protectionism disguised as noble fury at “coddling dictators”.

China's rage is out of all proportion to the alleged offences. It reflects a fear that a resentful, threatened West is determined to thwart China's rise. The Olympics have become a symbol of China's right to the respect it is due. Protests, criticism and boycott threats are seen as part of a broader refusal to accept and accommodate China.

There is no doubt genuine fury in China at these offences; yet the impression the response gives of a people united behind the government is an illusion. China, like India, is a land of a million mutinies now. Legions of farmers are angry that their land has been swallowed up for building by greedy local officials. People everywhere are aghast at the poisoning of China's air, rivers and lakes in the race for growth. Hardworking, honest citizens chafe at corrupt officials who treat them with contempt and get rich quick. And the party still makes an ass of the law and a mockery of justice.

Herein lies the danger for the government. Popular anger, once roused, can easily switch targets. This weekend China will be commemorating an event seen as pivotal in its long revolution—the protests on May 4th 1919 against the humiliation of China by the Versailles treaty (which bequeathed German “concessions” in China to Japan). The Communist Party had roots in that movement. Now, as then, protests at perceived slights against China's dignity could turn against a government accused of not doing enough to safeguard it.

Remember the ides of May

Western businessmen and policymakers are pulled in opposite directions by Chinese anger. As the sponsors of the Olympics have learned to their cost, while consumer- and shareholder-activists in the West demand they take a stand against perceived Chinese abuses, in China itself firms' partners and customers are all too ready to take offence. Western policymakers also face a difficult balancing act. They need to recognise that China has come a long way very quickly, and offers its citizens new opportunities and even new freedoms, though these are still far short of what would constitute democracy. Yet that does not mean they should pander to China's pride. Western leaders have a duty to raise concerns about human rights, Tibet and other “sensitive” subjects. They do not need to resign themselves to ineffectiveness: up to a point, pressure works: China has been modestly helpful over Myanmar, North Korea and Sudan. It has even agreed to reopen talks with the Dalai Lama's representatives. This has happened because of, not despite, criticism from abroad.

Pessimists fear that if China faces too much such pressure, hardliners within the ruling elite will triumph over the “moderates” in charge now. But even if they did, it is hard to see how they could end the 30-year-old process of opening up and turn China in on itself. This unprecedented phenomenon, of the rapid integration into the world of its most populous country, seems irreversible. There are things that could be done to make it easier to manage—including reform of the architecture of the global institutions that reflect a 60-year-old world order. But the world and China have to learn to live with each other.

For China, that means learning to respect foreigners' rights to engage it even on its “internal affairs”. A more measured response to such criticism is necessary not only to China's great-power ambitions, but also to its internal stability; for while the government may distract Chinese people from their domestic discontents by breathing fire at foreigners, such anger, once roused, can run out of control. In the end, China's leaders will have to deal with those frustrations head-on, by tackling the pollution, the corruption and the human-rights abuses that contribute to the country's dangerous mood. The Chinese people will demand it.

May 1st 2008
From The Economist print edition

sábado, abril 26, 2008

Strong States and Liberty by Francis Fukuyama

Strong States and Liberty
by Francis Fukuyama

The fiasco of the Olympic Torch Relay has focused attention on the condition of human rights in China. What is the source of human rights abuses in that country today? Many people assume the problem is that China remains a communist dictatorship, and that abuses occur because a strong centralized Chinese state ignores the rights of its citizens. With regard to Tibet and the suppression of the religious movement Falun Gong, this may be right. But the larger problem in today’s China arises out of the fact that the central Chinese state is in certain ways too weak to defend the rights of its people.

The vast majority of abuses of the rights of ordinary Chinese citizens today—peasants who have their land taken away without just compensation, workers forced to labor under sweatshop conditions, or villagers poisoned by illegal dumping of pollutants—occurs at a level far below that of the government in Beijing. China’s peculiar road towards modernization after 1978 was powered by so-called “township and village enterprises” (TVEs), which were local government bodies that were given the freedom to establish businesses and enter into the emerging market economy. The TVEs were enormously successful, and many today have become extraordinarily rich and powerful. In cahoots with private developers and companies, it is they who are producing conditions resembling the “satanic mills” of early industrial England.

The central government, by all accounts, would like to crack down on these local government bodies, but finds itself unable to do so. It both lacks capacity, and depends on local governments and the private sector to produce jobs and revenue. The Chinese Communist Party understands that it is riding a tiger. Each year there are several thousand violent incidents of social protest, each one contained and suppressed by state authorities, who nevertheless cannot seem to get at the underlying source of the unrest.

Americans traditionally distrust strong central government, and champion a federalism that distributes powers to state and local governments. The logic of wanting to move government closer to the people is strong, but we often forget that tyranny can be imposed by local oligarchies as much as by centralized ones. In the history of the Anglophone world, it is not the ability of local authorities to check the central government, but rather a balance of power between local authorities and a strong central government, that is the true cradle of liberty.

The nineteenth century British legal scholar Sir Henry Sumner Maine in his book Early Law and Custom points to this very fact in a fine essay entitled “France and England.” He notes that the single most widespread complaint written in the cahiers produced on the eve of the French Revolution (which Tocqueville also refers to in The Old Regime and the French Revolution) were complaints by peasants over encroachments of their property rights by seigneurial courts. According to Maine, judicial power in France was decentralized and under control of the local aristocracy. By contrast, from the time of the Norman conquest, the English monarchy had succeeded in establishing a strong, uniform, and centralized system of justice. It was the King’s Courts that protected non-elite groups from depredations by the local aristocracy. The failure of the French monarchy to impose similar constraints on local elites was one of the reasons why the peasants who sacked manor houses during the Revolution went straight to the room containing the titres to property that they felt had been stolen from them over the preceding generations. In England, the legitimacy of existing property rights was much more broadly accepted.

State weakness can hurt the cause of liberty. The Polish and Hungarian aristocracies were able to impose their equivalents of the Magna Carta on their monarchs; those countries’ central governments, unlike their English counterpart, remained far too weak in subsequent generations to protect the peasantry from the local lords, not to speak of protecting their countries as a whole from outside invasion.

The same was of course true in the United States. “States’ Rights” and federalism was the banner under which local elites in the South could oppress African-Americans, both before and after the Civil War. American liberty is the product of decentralized government balanced by a strong central state, one that is capable, when necessary, of sending the National Guard to Little Rock to protect the right of black children to attend school.

It is hard to know if and when freedom will emerge in 21st century China. The latter may be the first country where demand for accountable government is driven primarily by concern over a poisoned environment. But it will come about only when popular demand for some form of downward accountability on the part of local governments and businesses is supported by a central government strong enough to force local elites to obey the country’s own rules.

quarta-feira, abril 23, 2008

It will survive?





Se o início da tentativa da globalização do Cristianismo, do Islamismo e de outras religiões começou há vários séculos, o final do século XX trouxe nos a tentativa da globalização da ciência, do liberalismo económico, dos valores democráticos (incluindo a separação entre a igreja e o Estado), etc.

Observando os dados do gráfico, concluimos que cerca de 14% (não-religiosos e ateus) da população mundial não tem religião. Este facto significa que apesar de na maior parte dos países a religião esteja separada do poder político (excepto nalguns casos do mundo muçulmano), a verdade é que continua a ser uma grande influência na esfera individual de cada um. Ou seja, continua a exercer um poder directo e indirecto, na sociedade, na política, na economia, etc.


Daí e também pelos valores éticos e morais que cada religião professa, se compreende a "luta" pela conversão, neste combate a Igreja Católica tem vindo a perder fieis, comparando com o Islão que apesar dos mediáticos efeitos do terrorismo islâmico, tem aumentado o número de fieis no mundo.


Grande parte dos problemas políticos têm como base diferenças culturais e ideológicas, em que a religião está presente no background. Só compreendendo este papel fulcral da religião se poderá também resolver muitos dos problemas que destabilizam a paz e segurança internacionais. Se os líderes políticos não compreenderem este facto, poderão tomar decisões não racionais que afectarão o país e a comunidade internacional e se os líderes religiosos não compreenderem a força da sua mensagem só estarão a condenar a existência da fé que professam.


Por enquanto a fé e a ética religiosa sobreviveu ao laicismo, à globalização da ciência e do liberalismo económico, à sua própria inadaptação ocasional aos tempos actuais e aos actos de violência que por vezes é a causa. No entanto não podemos desvalorizar o seu importante papel no mundo.


quarta-feira, março 12, 2008

Relatório sobre os Direitos Humanos na China 2007, US Department of State





Country Reports on Human Rights Practices 2007
Released by the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor/ US Department of State
March 11, 2008

segunda-feira, março 10, 2008

Ciclo de Conferências Pensar Portugal No Mundo



O Presidente da Comissão de Negócios Estrangeiros e Comunidades Portuguesas
tem a honra de convidar V.Exa para o


Ciclo de Conferências
PENSAR PORTUGAL NO MUNDO

Sala do Senado / Assembleia da República


ORADORES CONVIDADOS:

Professor Adriano Moreira
Dr. António Vitorino
12 de Março de 2008 (11h - 13h)


Embaixador Francisco Seixas da Costa
Professor José Medeiros Ferreira
9 de Abril de 2008 (11h - 13h)


Professor Ernâni Lopes
Professor Jaime Nogueira Pinto
30 de Abril de 2008 (11h - 13h)


Professora Maria João Rodrigues
Dr. Rui Vilar
14 de Maio de 2008 (11h - 13h)


Embaixador António Monteiro
Professor Eduardo Lourenço
Dr. Filipe de Botton
28 de Maio de 2008 (11h - 13h)

quarta-feira, fevereiro 27, 2008

Album de fotos de Obama!





O poder da imagem nas campanhas políticas é reconhecido, quer pelos apoiantes dos Clinton que terão posto a foto da polémica a circular na net a partir de um blogue chamado Drudge Report, quer pelo próprio Obama que prontamente respondeu: «Everybody knows that whether it's me or Senator Clinton or Bill Clinton that when you travel to other countries they ask you to try on traditional garb that you have been given as a gift," "The notion that the Clinton campaign would be trying to circulate this as a negative on the same day that Senator Clinton was giving a speech about how we repair our relationships around the world is sad"». Talvez sejam os Republicanos que ganhem com este fait-divers dos democratas,

quarta-feira, fevereiro 20, 2008

Rússia em tempo de mudança?


Em 2008, vamos assistir a duas eleições presidenciais de extrema importância para as Relações Internacionais. Nos EUA, vamos assistir a um combate Obama/ Clinton contra Mccain, enquanto que na Rússia sabemos antecipadamente quem será o eleito, Dmitry Medvevdev, denunciando assim o défice democrático que existe nesse país. Com a excelência do Financial Times, aqui estão 3 visões sobre o que é a Russia de Putin hoje, sobre o perfil de Medvedev e uma opinião sobre o futuro da Rússia.



segunda-feira, fevereiro 18, 2008

Kosovo



O Kosovo está para a Sérvia, como Guimarães está para Portugal. Para muitos sérvios essa região é o berço da nação sérvia. Além disto, declarada a Independência, os sérvios tornam-se uma minoria étnica e religiosa no Kosovo, apesar das declarações de Hashim Tacic, primeiro ministro Kosovar, que reafirmam o respeito pelos direitos humanos. Ora o que para uns é o finalizar do processo de desagregação da ex-jugoslávia, para outros é um factor de instabilidade nos Balcãs e no resto da Europa.
A Rússia e a Sérvia desde sempre se manifestaram contra a independência do Kosovo. Amanhã (2ª feira), os EUA devem declarar o seu apoio e na UE as posições dividem-se. A Grã Bretanha, a Alemanha e a França deverão declarar o apoio a uma independência limitada do Kosovo, como a ONU recomendou. A Grécia, Chipre, Eslováquia, Bulgária, Roménia e Espanha deverão mostrar se contra a independência do Kosovo. Certamente não interessá à Espanha a declaração unilateral de independência por parte de uma das suas regiões autónomas como a Catalunha ou Bilbao. O argumento dos que estão contra, defende que o Costume e o Direito Internacional obriga à realização prévia de um acordo entre as partes, declarando assim o reconhecimento de uma independência unilateral como ilegal.
Com a independência do Kosovo, abre se uma caixa de pandora (como Dimitri Peskov, porta voz de Putin, referiu). Daqui pode advir o ínicio de novas independências e nacionalismos em efeito dominó. Pode também ser o retorno a um certo clima bipolar Este/Oeste que existia na Guerra Fria. E finalmente será esta a prova de como a UE nunca poderá vir a ter uma política externa comum?
Bowring: What about all the other Kosovos?
The Balkans may be a long way from Asia but the word "Balkanization" is still etched in the minds of many leaders, particularly those who lived through the years of instability that followed decolonization.
Though the issue of Kosovo is not attracting too much public comment in Asia, it is a worry for those who ponder the implications for countries struggling with separatist minorities of their own.
They note that while the original break-up of Yugoslavia resulted from internal forces, the independence of Kosovo was made possible because the United States and the European Union supported this dismemberment of Serbia. Whether this is the result of idealism or is regarded as punishment for Serbia's actions during the Milosevic era does not matter from the point of view of those not directly involved.
Indonesia and Sri Lanka have said that they will not recognize Kosovo's independence. China and Vietnam insist that any solution must not compromise the territorial integrity of Serbia. Most other Asian official reaction is similarly likely to be negative.
There are two issues here from an Asian perspective. The first is how far the principle of self-determination should be taken. Kosovo is a landlocked state of 2 million people, 10 percent of whom are Serbs strongly opposed to its independence.
The second is to ask when and where the process of dismemberment of former empires will end. After all, the very word "Balkanization" derives from the break-up of the Balkan territory of two empires, Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian, into 10 states.
It may be that the nature of the European Union can allow many mini-states to exist within a broader political entity, and that Kosovo is as viable as Luxembourg. Just possibly, the EU can be successor to the former Ottoman and Hapsburg empires, embracing all states of the Balkans, big and small.
Possibly. But none of that is much consolation to other regions of the world which do not possess equivalents to the EU. Since 1945, if not earlier, they have mostly lived with two concepts: First, the nation state as accepted by their peers at the United Nations; second, borders defined by their histories as parts of Western empires.
Thus far there have been remarkably few post-colonial formal splits. The major one was the creation of Bangladesh out of an untenable Pakistan divided by a thousand miles and an equally large cultural gap. Singapore's separation from Malaysia was peaceful. Eritrea's from Ethiopia was not.
But African and Asian nations still worry deeply about national integrity. The end of formal Western empires (most recently the Russian one) is still far too close for successor nations to be confident that their borders will survive. So they are particularly sensitive when they find the West instinctively supporting separatist movements, even if only verbally.
Whether the issue is Darfur, West Papua, Nagaland or the Shan states, the old colonial powers are often seen on the side of difficult minorities opposed to the central governments the powers themselves created.
Nor does it appear, at least from a distance, that an independent Kosovo offers even a sensible solution to the problem of linguistic nations divided from their national state. Logic would surely be the partition of Kosovo between Albania and Serbia, rather than the creation of another mini-state with another disgruntled minority.
Many in the rest of the world do not even credit the West with good intentions, noting that some influential voices in Western capitals would be happy to see Iraq divided into three states, Shiite, Sunni and Kurd.
Even if they appreciate that the European Union and the United States are trying to solve problems rather than introduce new divide-and-rule stratagems, they worry.
Take Sri Lanka. Kosovo logic suggests that the Tamils in the north deserve a separate state, an eventuality that would have huge implications for an India which can only exist if its major constituent parts - be they Tamil, Sikh or Bengali - accept an overriding identity and the benefits of diversity and size.
None of this is to argue that minority rights do not matter - that China can suppress Tibet and (Turkic) Xinjiang, that Russia can brutalize Chechnya, thatThailand can submit its Malay/Muslim minority to alien laws and language, and so on.
But for most of Africa and Asia the issue is sustaining states capable of delivering administration and a stable basis for development. As Kenya shows, even in states without overt separatist problems and with some success in economic development, the over-riding problem remains integrating diverse peoples into states.
Kosovo's independence may be the last act in the Balkanization of former empires. But it also looks like a victory for tribalism and creates a principle which can only exacerbate problems in other countries. In place of acceptance of minority autonomy within a single state structure there will be fights to the bitter end between centralism and separatism.
by Phillip Bowring
In The International Herald Tribune

domingo, fevereiro 10, 2008

La llama que llama - Dalai Lama

Apenas um anuncio a uma companhia telefonica a jeito de piada para desanuviar um pouco. Espero que gostem!

Dalai Lama II

No sentido de tentar esclarecer algumas dúvidas suscitadas aqui no blog sobre as ideias e príncipios que o Dalai Lama defende, não há melhor que ouvir o próprio a falar. No âmbito das Relações Internacionais penso que é um tema de grande relevância, porque envolve o interesse nacional de grandes potências, o respeito pelos direitos humanos, a violação do Direito Internacional, a acção das OIG's e das ONG's a este respeito, a interdependência entre os Estados, etc.